NBA Playoffs Daily Picks- May 7, 2024

Monday’s Recap:

The Pacers opened up in New York at the Knicks to start their second round series and got to see firsthand the tear that Jalen Brunson is on in this playoffs, as he scored 40+ points once again for the fourth straight time. He has scored 210 points in the last five games, making it the most points scored in a five game stretch of the playoffs since Michael Jordan back in 1993. Josh Hart was the unsung hero though as he had 24 points on 9/13 field goals to go with 13 rebounds, four of which were offensive. 

In the other game of the night, the Timberwolves are starting to look like the team to beat in the West as they landed another big hit to the Nuggets title defense. Rudy Gobert wasn’t available as he was with his family for the birth of his son like a real man should, but it didn’t matter for the Timberwolves as they jumped all over the Nuggets from the start. Karl-Anthony Towns had a great game early on, and had 27 points to go with 12 rebounds in total. The thing I really love about the Timberwolves is their length at almost every single position, and the fact that the length they have, can shoot it from the outside and space the floor very well to allow for Anthony Edwards and Towns to work on offense. Their defense is in your face, and reminds of Rick Pitino coached teams. I am not sure there’s a team in the West that can match the intensity and fierceness that is the Timberwolves defense.  

Home teams are now 34-18 SU in the playoffs and 26-26 ATS while totals are at 24-28 O/U. Favorites are 35-17 SU as well, and 28-24 ATS. Home favorites are 29-12 SU and 21-20 ATS for the playoffs while home dogs are 5-6 SU and ATS so far. 

Monday’s Picks:

We had a good day on the totals yesterday as we swept them. We split ATS as we barely missed on the Knicks, but not sure we really deserved to win that one. We are now 56-47-1 for the playoffs at a +3.96 units for a +3.81% ROI. 

For the last seven days we’re 15-11, +2.65 units at a +10.19% ROI. 

Below are our NBA Picks for May 7, 2024:

Two second round series starting up tonight as the Celtics will host the Cavaliers and the Mavericks will visit the top seed in the West, Oklahoma City Thunder. In the Boston-Cleveland series, I think the three point line is going to be the key in whether or not the Cavs will be successful against Boston. The Celtics are one of the best defensive teams against the three, while also being second in three point percentage. The Cavaliers are middle of the pack in both categories, but I definitely think they have the size to make things frustrating for the Celtics offense, especially without Porzingis out there.

For the Thunder-Mavericks series, I think it all comes down to how well the Thunder can defend against Doncic and Irving. The key isn’t to stop both, because that is very unlikely, but you hope if you’re Oklahoma City to just make things difficult on both players with the massive amounts of size and length they have at most of the positions on the floor, and to attack Doncic on the defensive end to make him exert as much effort as possible each night.

 

Tuesday’s NBA Trends

Cavaliers @ Celtics (7:00 PM EST)

  • Cavaliers are 14-17 ATS as an underdog this year
  • Cavaliers are 9-10 ATS after allowing 100 points or less this year
  • Cavaliers are 12-14 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this year
  • Cavaliers are 3-11 O/U in all playoff games over L/3 seasons
  • Cavaliers are 10-8 O/U after allowing 100 points or less this year
  • Celtics are 3-1 ATS when playing with 3 or more days of rest this year
  • Celtics are 3-1 ATS after allowing 90 points or less this year
  • Celtics are 16-19 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins this year
  • Celtics are 21-13 O/U after allowing 105 points or less this year
  • Celtics are 3-1 O/U after 3 or more days of rest this year
  • Cavaliers are 6-3-1 ATS against Celtics over L/3 seasons

Mavericks @ Thunder (9:30 PM EST)

  • Mavericks are 17-6 ATS after allowing 105 points or less this year
  • Mavericks are 21-12 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this year
  • Mavericks are 3-2 ATS when playing with 3 or more days of rest and 5-6 ATS over L/3 seasons
  • Mavericks are 5-15 O/U in the 2H of the season vs. good offensive teams scoring 116+ ppg
  • Mavericks are 8-15 O/U after allowing 105 points or less this year
  • Thunder are 1-4 ATS after three or more days of rest this year
  • Thunder are 12-6 ATS after allowing 100 points or less this year
  • Thunder are 9-2 ATS after allowing 90 points or less over L/3 seasons
  • Thunder are 4-1 O/U after scoring 100 points or less this year
  • Thunder are 16-8 O/U vs. good offensive teams scoring 116+ ppg this year
  • Thunder are 8-3 ATS over L/3 seasons vs. the Mavericks

Stats are Courtesy of STATfox

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Best of Luck, Tail or Fade.

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